Myanmar's Resumption Expectations Contradict Short-Term Reality; The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Fluctuates Rangebound [SMM Tin Midday Review]

​March 5, 2025, Midday Review of SHFE Tin Futures Most-Traded Contract​

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In the morning session, the most-traded SHFE tin 2504 contract continued to fluctuate rangebound, with prices hovering around 256,000 yuan/mt. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract temporarily reported at 255,700 yuan/mt, slightly up from the previous trading day's (March 4) closing price. Overall trading remained cautious, and open interest stayed stable.

​Myanmar's Resumption Expectations Versus Short-Term Realities: Expectations for the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, persist, but actual production requires a three-month preparation period. The short-term tight supply situation at the mine end has not fundamentally changed. Coupled with the escalation of M23 armed conflict in the DRC, threatening local tin ore transportation, supply-side uncertainties have further intensified.

Afternoon Outlook​
In the short term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to maintain sideways movement within the range of 250,000-258,000 yuan/mt:​Upside Resistance: Myanmar's resumption expectations and inventory buildup pressure may limit the rebound height, with resistance near 258,000 yuan/mt.Downside Support: Low tin concentrate TC and tight spot supply provide rigid support for prices, with strong buying interest near 250,000 yuan/mt.
Investors are advised to maintain a cautious bearish approach, engaging in high selling and low buying within the range, while focusing on the following signals:

1. progress in Myanmar's tin mine resumption and the evolution of geopolitical risks in the DRC;
2. the strength of domestic Two Sessions policy implementation and the recovery of manufacturing demand;
3. US Fed monetary policy expectations and the impact of US dollar index fluctuations on commodities.